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In the German federal election held on February 23, 2025, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged as the leading force, securing approximately 29% of the vote, according to early exit polls.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), notably endorsed by entrepreneur Elon Musk, achieved a significant milestone by capturing around 19.5% of the vote, positioning itself as the second-largest party in the Bundestag. This marks the first instance since World War II that a party other than the CDU or the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has claimed second place.
The SPD, led by incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, experienced a substantial decline, falling to third place with less than 20% of the vote—a historic low not seen since the late 19th century.
The Greens, under the leadership of Robert Habeck, also saw a decrease in their vote share, while The Left (Die Linke) secured fifth place. Notably, neither the Free Democratic Party (FDP) nor the Bavarian Party (BSW) surpassed the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
The election was precipitated by the collapse of the coalition government in November 2024, following a dispute over Germany's debt brake between Chancellor Scholz and then-Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, campaigned on a platform advocating for stricter migration policies, the retention of the debt brake, corporate tax reductions, and continued support for Ukraine. In contrast, the AfD capitalized on anti-immigration sentiments, bolstered by Musk's endorsement.
Despite their plurality, the CDU/CSU lacks an absolute majority, necessitating coalition negotiations to form a stable government. Potential coalition partners include the SPD and the Greens; however, forming a viable coalition is expected to be challenging. Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, has openly opposed a coalition with the Greens, further complicating potential alliances. Merz has indicated that coalition discussions could extend over the next two months.
This election is pivotal as Germany navigates its future amidst an assertive U.S. administration under President Trump and its role as a key NATO member and military aid provider to Ukraine. The rise of the AfD reflects a significant shift in the German political landscape, underscoring growing public concerns over immigration and economic policies.